Washington-based Think Tank mei.edu shared views on the Political Issues in Somalia.

 

Somali presidential candidates and opposition alliance parties planned to hold a major demonstration against what they see as the illegitimate rule of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, whose presidential mandate expired on Feb. 8. On the night before the protests, however, the hotel where two former Somali presidents were staying came under heavy fire — an attack former Prime Minister Hassan Khaire described as an assassination attempt and former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed said was carried out by government forces. The attack resulted in the death of several of the former presidents’ bodyguards, who successfully stopped the assault after a 30-minute firefight.

The next morning when the demonstration started, it too came under attack, with former PM Khaire pointing the finger at Farmajo-allied paramilitary units for firing live bullets on peaceful demonstrators led by him and other opposition leaders. This was followed by heavy shelling of Mogadishu’s Aden Adde International Airport, resulting in the cancellation of all flights and damaging nearby shops and restaurants.

According to unconfirmed reports, more than 20 people were killed in the attacks and doctors and medical personnel were reportedly prevented from attending to or evacuating the injured, who later died. If so, this could potentially provide grounds for bringing war crimes charges, as willfully preventing the rendering of medical aid to the injured, wounded, and sick is outlawed under the articles of the Geneva Convention.

The Farmajo regime then embarked on a coordinated disinformation campaign, with Hassan Hundubey Jimale, the Somali minister of internal security, issuing a statement blaming the opposition and peaceful protesters for inciting the violence. This was reinforced by statements from the U.N. Somalia mission and U.S embassy in Mogadishu that referred to the attacks simply as “clashes.”

Much like former Somali dictator Mohamed Siad Barre, who carried out a process of Marehenization of decision-making, key government ministries, and the military, Farmajo has stacked key ministries, military positions, and diplomatic missions with his own people to retain his hold on power. He is betting on his clan militia, Turkish-trained forces, and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to cling to power beyond his term.

The majority of the military units in Mogadishu are from the Hawiye clan and clan loyalty persists as an important source of protection in a fragile country like Somalia that lacks an effective army. If the stalemate continues, the Somalia National Army (SNA) may split in Mogadishu to join opposing parties that are majority Hawiye. The tribalization of the military under the Farmajo government, especially the Danab special forces, could have been avoided had the U.S. applied greater pressure. Similarly, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Somalia not only emboldened Farmajo to continue his silent coup, but also weakened and divided the Danab army units, which were funded and trained by the U.S. Department of Defense. This will only serve to undermine the country’s stability and benefit the al-Qaeda-linked group al-Shabab.

That Farmajo remains in office beyond the end of his term on Feb. 8 and has been allegedly involved in attacks on protesters and presidential candidates makes him ineligible to be part of any realistic future political solution for Somalia. This was reflected in the letter sent by 15 Somali presidential candidates to U.N. Security Council, which plans to hold a meeting on the issue on Feb. 22. The candidates also requested the U.N. Security Council to set up a transitional council government. This is the only viable option to hold an election and ensure a peaceful transition of power while avoiding yet another civil war in this fragile country.

https://www.mei.edu/blog/monday-briefing-pursuing-diplomacy-iran-without-giving-us-leverage?s=16#ahmed